May 2006

In the Hot Seat

One of the world's leading flight training experts is warning the corporate aviation sector of an impending crisis in the quality of pilots available for hire. He is also making recommendations on what the industry can do to avert the situation.

The worldwide shortage of qualified pilots across all aviation sectors is already well documented, but Bruno Dobler, President of the Board of Horizon Swiss Flight Academy predicts that the business aviation industry is teetering on the verge of a disaster unless it tackles the issue now. Says Dobler, "Traditionally, pilots head for the airlines first and then move into business aviation. What looks likely to happen is that there will be more pilots flying for the airlines and there will fewer top calibre pilots available to the corporate sector. As an industry which is dependent on its reputation, this could have dire consequences for safety, unless it does something now".

Dependence on reputation

	Bruno Dobler (Pic: Helvetic Airways)

As CEO for Switzerland's Helvetic Airways and with twenty-five years of pilot training under his belt, Dobler is well qualified to comment. The public perception of business aviation safety has already become a delicate topic. Last year's flurry of accidents in the US - both fatal crashes and serious non-fatal incidents - has already raised alarm bells in some quarters. Last May the respected US business magazine Forbes ran an article entitled "Flight of fear". The emotive piece focused on the lack of policing in the US charter industry and mentioned a court case concerning a co-pilot on a Learjet involved in a fatal accident. It is claimed that his records had been falsified, to indicate he passed his FAA annual proficiency flight. The fact that Forbes ran the story signals awareness outside the industry that recent safety performance has not been as good as it should be.

Fatalities on US private business charter planes jumped 55% last year to 65 deaths out of 68 separate accidents. The FAA was so concerned that it organised a roundtable of experts in February to look at the issues. "We're in trouble here," Steven Wallace, director of the FAA's Office of Accident Investigation said at an industry conference last March. "There's no question the perception in Washington, aided by the press, is we really have to do something." The National Air transportation Association said that the industry "must improve charter operations safety", whilst aircraft manufacturer Bombardier stated that "The majority of accidents are still caused by Human Error".

Robert Breiling, who conducts safety analyses for the NBAA, found that there were more serious accidents involving business jets in 2004 than the previous year. In October 2005, Breiling noted the number of fatalities in turbine-powered business aircraft of all types had increased by 80% compared with the same period in 2004. Business aircraft often operate into smaller airfields lacking the safety equipment associated with airports serving scheduled commercial air traffic. 80% of accident investigations place pilot decision making as the primary cause. Cockpit resource management is an essential element in the training of all pilots and crew but it is not a requirement for jet charter operators outside the EU and accidents often take place due to poor crew co-ordination and not following standard operating procedures.

The emerging very light jet (VLJ) market could also put pressure on the industry's reputation for safety. The first deliveries of the Eclipse 500 six-seat twinjet are set for next year and will put huge numbers of business owner-pilots, or even pilots employed by air taxi or charter operations, at the controls of aircraft much faster than they have handled before. In addition the twin turbofan aircraft will be certified for single-pilot operation, whereas most business flights at the moment are run with a crew of two.

Stiff competition with airlines for pilot recruitment

The most important factor affecting business aviation is the worldwide shortage of pilots. Forecasters anticipate that China will become the world's second-largest aviation market after the US within 20 years and Chinese airlines are falling over themselves to recruit qualified foreigners. Hainan, Shenzhen and Sichuan Airlines, along with Okay Airways, China's first private operator, hired around 100 European pilots in 2005 and expect to take on more. Last year China's major airlines carried 120 million passengers, a 38 per cent rise on 2003, and ordered over 200 new aircraft last year.

Boeing has set up a training centre near Beijing and estimates that China will need more than 2,400 new passenger and freight aircraft over the next two decades and require 55,000 pilots to fly them. However, qualified captains are needed in the short term. There is likely to be a shortfall of up to 8,000 experienced pilots over the next 10 years, which will compel the country into hiring more foreigners.

India is also desperate to entice captains from the West. The country's strong economic growth has boosted the market for air travel with a 25% growth in air passenger traffic last year. There are six to seven million air passengers in the country, and industry watchers say their numbers could rise tenfold in five years. Indian airlines placed orders for more than 100 widebody aircraft in 2005. The civil aviation ministry estimates India will need 5,000 pilots in the next three to four years. Last July the government stated that Air India was 118 pilots short, while Alliance Air, a subsidiary of Indian Airlines, had 40 vacancies. The supply of new pilots in India is also being squeezed, as a number of flight schools have had to suspend lessons because their instructors have been hired to fly for commercial carriers.

Middle Eastern airlines, too, are demanding pilots at a rate of knots. Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways all regularly recruit and local private operators, such as National Air Services or the region's various royal flights, are constantly looking for pilots. Thanks to huge growth in the region's aviation sector, the local fleet is expected to grow by around 600 aircraft over the next 20 years, according to Boeing, which means that around 4,800 extra pilots need to be recruited or trained to fly them. Larger carriers also face a challenge, although theirs is more about finding volumes of quality staff. Emirates has 1,200 pilots from 60-plus countries and is looking to double this number by 2012. It is aiming to recruit 200 pilots this year, and 300 next year.

An Eclipse 500, one of the new very light jets (Picture: Eclipse Aviation)

However, while Europe, along with South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, has supplied a large number of the pilots to the region over recent years, this flow may soon start to dry up, as the airline industry there begins to recov er.Arecentconferenceorganisedby the British Airline Pilots union, BALPA found that 700 new flight deck crew will be needed for 2006 to fill vacancies caused by expansion and retirements

Business aviation growth

Coupled with the lack of pilots, business aviation is set to grow. A survey by Honeywell in October found that the long-term future for the growth of business aviation is very positive. The outlook forecast demand for 7,600 new business aircraft over the next five years. By 2012 the fractional ownership fleet will comprise 10 to 12 percent of all active business aircraft in the world (compared with around 7 percent today). Speaking at the NBAA conference in Orlando this year Honeywell Aerospace's president, Bob Johnson said, "[We] continue to believe that only a small portion of the potential fractional business has been developed, and we believe that continued growth in this segment is sustainable for years to come".

Despite recent rumblings, the sector enjoys a reputation for high standards of maintenance and safety, which it can call on to offset extra costs that it could incur because of increased bureaucracy. For example, in Europe, The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is proposing that corporate operators push the fact that they traditionally have a superb safety record to avoid some of the bureaucracy involved in qualifying for an aircraft operator's certificate (AOC) designed for airlines.

In order to maintain its traditional impressive safety record and protect its good name, Dobler believes that business aviation needs to raise its game and provide more stringent quality checks on pilot ability and increase training where it sees a skills shortfall. Unlike the airlines, the sector has not yet established a common standard for refresher training. Scheduling can exacerbate the problem. But solutions are available; Horizon has developed an online testing programme using internet tools, which pilots can access at any time from anywhere. The system tracks the results automatically, which also does away with administration. The system is already used by airlines and corporate aviation companies.

Suggested solutions

So what can the industry do to protect itself? Dobler suggests several key areas to look at, the first being recruitment and how to pitch the profession to attract suitable wannabes. He should know. Horizon has an impressive track record in weeding out appropriate candidates for an aviation career. On average, more than 95% of its graduates are hired within six months of completing their training, even in the last four years when jobs were scarce. "The industry has to apply itself carefully to the screening process", Dobler says. "Not only that, it needs to promote itself to attract students in the first place, and to tackle some of the difficult issues, such as rostering. Business jet pilots often don't know their schedules until the last minute, unlike airline pilots, who are aware of theirs two to four weeks in advance. This obviously has a negative impact on people's lives and it is resolvable with careful planning".

To tackle the problem of experienced business aviation pilots defecting to the airlines, Dobler believes it is vital that the industry promotes the advantages of working in the sector, such as opportunities for rapid career development in smaller teams, flying some of the world's most sophisticated aircraft to destinations all over the world and staying in luxury hotels. Says Dobler, "Most of the world's high fliers use business aircraft, rather than flying with airlines. This demonstrates that there is a real need to select the right pilots, to treat them and train them well to qualify them for this highly demanding segment of aviation".

Dobler also believes that the business aviation industry could take up the model adopted by many airlines, where companies work with training organisations to pre-select student pilots, who then pay for their own training, perhaps with a loan or a contribution towards the costs of their training from the company. The company then tracks its students' progress and they stand a better chance of being hired by that organisation on completion. This would dramatically reduce the screening process for a business, as it will have tracked candidates through their training. Says Dobler, "The corporate aviation industry must act now, or find itself with serious difficulties in the very near future".

Elizabeth Moscrop

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